Energy answers are blowing in the wind

Weekend Australian
Saturday 13/3/2010 Page: 5

THE rapid expansion of wind energy around the world in the past decade is the outcome of research and development that has resulted in big improvements in turbine technology, a new federal government report says. The national energy resource assessment report, released this month by federal Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson, was prepared by the Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Geoscience Australia. Ferguson says the 385-page study shows for the first time just how extensive Australia's renewable energy prospects are.

It is more than a snapshot of energy resources, he says: "It is a national prospectus for energy investment and exports." Ferguson says he has received 52 applications for funding in the first round of the government's $1.5 billion solar flagships program, which is seeking to kick-start a total of $4.5bn worth of investment in this sector. But it is wind farming that ABARE and Geoscience Australia expect to lead the way in renewable energy generation development this decade. They foresee almost $22bn in wind investments.

The agencies say that 11,300MW of new wind development is under consideration by investors, most of it in three states: Victoria (34% ); NSW (30% ); and South Australia (19% ). Eight wind farms, with 733MW total capacity, are in advanced development at a capital cost of $1.8bn. The cost of the remainder is set at more than $19.1bn. "Australia's wind resources are among the best in the world," the report says. "They are primarily located in coastal regions but extend hundreds of kilometres inland. "These resources are being progressively utilised by an increasing number of large-scale wind farms of more than 100MW capacity using big modern turbines."

Wind generally costs less per unit of electricity generated than many other renewable technology. This cost advantage and support from the enlarged renewable target is expected to see most of the expansion in clean energy supply between now and 2020 go to wind-power investors. Policies to further reduce carbon emissions after 2020 "are likely to particularly benefit wind energy". ABARE and Geoscience Australia say that by 2030 wind generation in Australia will meet 12% of electricity demand out of a total renewables share of 19%. Today it holds 1.5% of the electricity market.

Further efficiency gains in turbine technology will enhance opportunities for wind farmers here and around the world, the agencies say. "The most significant change in the past decade has been a substantial increase in the size and height of rotors, driven by a desire to access higher wind speeds, which increase with height above ground. "The size and output of wind turbine rotors has doubled over 15 years. In 1998, Australia's first grid-connected wind farm at CrookWell in NSW had turbine rotor diameters of 44m.

"The recently commissioned Capital wind farm near Goulburn has rotor diameters of 88m." The next tranche of development will see wind farms with an average capacity of 149MW compared with 92MW for those being built today. ABARE and Geoscience Australia say efficiency gains in technology for onshore wind turbines is slowing, however, and they expect that further near term improvements in cost competitiveness will have to be driven by reduced manufacturing costs.