Worrying rise in greenhouse emissions forecast

The Age
December 20, 2006


Australia will slightly overstep its greenhouse emissions target by 2012, but a worrying big rise is predicted within the following decade, a new report has found. Australian Greenhouse Office's annual Tracking to the Kyoto Target report forecast that Australia's greenhouse gas emissions, by the year 2012, will be at 109 per cent of the 1990 emissions level.

This is slightly above the 108 per cent Kyoto Protocol target which last year's report found the country was on track to reach. The higher figure reflected stronger growth of emissions from electricity generation, the report said. A worrying aspect for the country is that emissions for 2020 are projected to reach 127 per cent of the 1990 level, reflecting the impact of continuing growth in emissions in the energy sector.

"This emphasises the need to focus on lowering Australia's greenhouse emissions over the longer term, while maintaining a healthy and competitive economy,'' the report stated.

Environment Minister Ian Campbell said that, while meeting Australia's emissions reduction target remained a challenge, the government was tracking well and remained committed to reaching it. "Australia is committed to achieving an emissions target of 108 per cent of 1990 levels by 2008-2012 and the report shows we are within one per cent of meeting that target,'' he said.

Senator Campbell said the annual estimates were influenced heavily by the rate of economic growth, the global demand for resources and domestic circumstances such as drought. "For example, in 2002 and 2003, Australia was projected to be three per cent and two per cent above the 108 per cent target respectively, but with emissions reduction measures put in place was back on target to 108 in subsequent years,'' Senator Campbell said.

"Australia is experiencing strong economic and employment growth and has a booming resources sector. "This in turn means emissions levels go up.''
Climate Institute adviser Irwin Jackson said the report showed the need for Australia to put in place a price signal on carbon emissions sooner rather than later.

"The overall report is fairly damning in terms of the government's response to climate change,'' Mr Jackson said. "Not only are we looking to exceed the Kyoto target but, probably more importantly, they've revised up how much our emissions are to increase after 2012.

"In the 2005 report, it said emissions would increase by 22 per cent by 2020 and now they're saying 27 per cent by 2020. "It really shows the government should pull its socks up and get serious about taking some short-term action to start to drive our emissions down and not let them continue to rise.''

He said Australia should be putting in place laws that require Australia to drive its emissions down and not let them continue to rise. "It needs to put in place laws to make sure that we start using more wind and solar power and other renewable energy sources, and we need a price on carbon to reward industry for investments in emissions reductions.''