Australia failing to meet Kyoto emissions targets

The Age
December 21, 2006

AUSTRALIA is projected to exceed its Kyoto target on greenhouse gas emissions, in a humiliating blow to the Federal Government, which has repeatedly pledged to meet the commitment.

Environment Minister Ian Campbell conceded yesterday that his own department's forecasts revealed Australia was 1 per cent above its target of an 8 per cent increase in emissions on 1990 levels by 2008-2012. Emissions for 2020 were projected to reach 127 per cent of 1990 levels.

The Opposition and the Greens claimed the forecasts were an indictment of Government inaction on climate change.

The report by the Australian Greenhouse Office, 2006 Tracking to the Kyoto Target, also showed that energy emissions from electricity generation, transport and the processing of fossil fuels, were projected to increase 50 per cent by 2010 from 1990 levels.

Emissions from non-energy industrial processes were also projected to increase 50 per cent by 2010 and emissions from agriculture by 5 per cent. However, emissions from waste were forecast to fall by 19 per cent and the emissions from land use change, such as forest clearing, were predicted to fall by 65 per cent.

Senator Campbell said Australia was experiencing strong economic growth and had a booming resources sector, which meant emissions levels went up. "While meeting Australia's emissions reduction target remains a challenge, we are tracking well and remain committed to reaching it," Senator Campbell said.

"Historically, Australia's emissions projections have moved around. The estimates are influenced heavily by the rate of economic growth, the global demand for resources and domestic circumstances such as drought."

Senator Campbell said without the action taken by Australian governments and people, including a $2 billion commitment by the Commonwealth to tackle climate change, Australia's projected emissions would be riding at 125 per cent of 1990 levels.

The Kyoto Protocol, which was negotiated in 1997 and came into force last year, set compulsory targets for developed nations. Most countries were required to take emissions below 1990 levels by 2008-2012, but Australia negotiated an 8 per cent increase.

Australia did not ratify the protocol, arguing it did not include fast-growing nations such as China and India and would harm local industry, and so is not bound to make cuts. However, in October, Senator Campbell told The Age that Australia was on track to meet its target.

Greens senator Christine Milne said the only reason Australia was even close to its target was because Queensland and NSW had new laws to restrict land clearing. Forests soak up carbon that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere. "If we didn't have that windfall gain we would be in absolutely diabolical trouble … greenhouse gas emissions in almost every single area are skyrocketing out of control," Senator Milne said.

Opposition environment spokesman Peter Garrett said the forecasts made it clear the Government's paltry policy reforms put Australia's economic and environmental future in jeopardy. "Their climate change policy is in tatters as a consequence of failing to meet the target given they had made so much of meeting it," Mr Garrett said.