www.nytimes.com
27 March 2011
BERLIN Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats on Sunday suffered a major defeat in a historic stronghold in southwestern Germany, where the Green Party appeared poised to head a state government for the first time, according to official preliminary results. The nuclear calamity in Japan and Mrs. Merkel's subsequent reversal on nuclear power played a key role in the elections in the southwest state of Baden Wuerttemberg, where the Christian Democrats have governed since 1953, before Mrs. Merkel, 56, was born.
Most Germans have a deep seated aversion to nuclear power, and the damage at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan has galvanized opposition. On Saturday, more than 200,000 people took to the streets of four big German cities to protest nuclear power. The news from Japan of soaring radiation levels led the major radio and television newscasts on Sunday. After the catastrophe in Japan, Mrs. Merkel reversed a pro nuclear policy that she adopted just last year and temporarily shut down seven of Germany's 17 nuclear plants. She apparently did not convince voters that her change of policy was sincere.
At Christian Democrat headquarters in Berlin, there was shock as the preliminary results were announced. "This is very painful for us", said Annette Schavan, federal education and science minister. At their headquarters across town, the Greens were jubilant over their projected 25% of the vote. Winfried Kretschmann, 62, who stands to head a Green led coalition in Baden Wuerttemberg, spoke of "a historic change". According to the preliminary results, the Christian Democrats won the most votes, about 39%, down from 44.2% in 2006. Yet the weak showing of the Free Democrats, the pro business party with which Mrs. Merkel governs nationally, left the conservatives no hope of forming the next state government.
The Free Democrats looked likely to squeak into the state Legislature with just 5.3% of the vote, the minimum required. In 2006, they got 10.7%. If the polls are confirmed, the Greens are in a comfortable position to head a coalition with the Social Democrats in Baden Wuerttemberg, which has some 11 million residents and is among the most prosperous and successful of Germany's 16 states. The Greens were projected to win 24.2% of the vote, compared with 11.7% in 2006. The Social Democrats were forecast to take 23.5% of the votes, little changed from 2006.
"If the results are confirmed, then this is a major breakthrough for the Greens", said Nils Diederich, a political science professor at the Free University in Berlin. "And it is a huge blow to the chancellor", he added. "For the Greens, the big question is whether such success can be sustained on the federal level. Its opposition to nuclear power and its environmental policies really did galvanize its support". In neighboring Rhineland Palatinate, where the Social Democrat premier Kurt Beck has governed with an absolute majority since 2006, the Social Democrats suffered sizable losses. Their share of the vote fell to 38% on Sunday, from 45.6% in 2006.
The Green Party, which failed to get elected to the regional parliament in 2006, won 16.8% of the vote. Mr. Beck is expected to ask the Greens to join a coalition with the Social Democrats. The Free Democrats were voted out of the regional parliament in Rhineland Palatinate, and, in a sign that Mrs. Merkel's party is likely to see as hopeful, the Christian Democrats increased their share of the Rhineland Palatinate vote to 36% from 32.8% five years ago. Political analysts credited a good campaign by the regional party leader Julia Kloeckner, 38.
In Baden Wuerttemberg, by contrast, the Christian Democrats suffered not only from Mrs. Merkel's reversal on nuclear power in a state with four nuclear plants but also "from a lackluster and unfocused campaign". The regional party leader and premier, Stefan Mappus, 44, was an unknown local politician until Mrs. Merkel chose him to replace Guenther Oettinger, who went to Brussels as European Union commissioner for energy. Last year, Mr. Mappus was slow to react to a groundswell of opposition to Stuttgart 21, a planned new railway station complex in the state capital that was billed as vital to speed up links between Germany and the rest of Europe.
The Greens led part of the opposition to the project, gaining a larger profile while Mr. Mappus floundered. But it was the combination of the crisis in Japan, and Mrs. Merkel's reaction, that swung opinion polls from the conservatives who three weeks ago looked set to eke out a victory to the Greens and the Social Democrats. That decision was a U turn for Mrs. Merkel. Last year she decided to overturn a decision and a relevant law by a former government of Social Democrats and Greens that aimed to close all nuclear power plants by 2022. Mrs. Merkel prolonged the plants' scheduled lifespan by an average of 12 years.
The change did not help Mr. Mappus, who was a staunch defender of nuclear power. He again seemed to flounder, saying at one point that one of the four nuclear plants in his state would be closed permanently. When that did not reverse the drifting polls, he reverted to support of nuclear power. As soon as Mrs. Merkel shifted her stance, the Greens pounced on the change as a move to win votes, and late last week, her economics minister, a Free Democrat, confirmed to a gathering of industry leaders that it was a tactical shift. That reinforced the impression of disarray in the national government.
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