Energy output to soar, gas to burn brighter than coal

Age
Wednesday 3/3/2010 Page: 3

STRONG export demand will result in the nation's energy production nearly doubling by 2030 but Australia is set to consume far less coal and much more gas, according to a federal government report. The Australian Energy Resource Assessment, compiled by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Geoscience Australia, is a comprehensive audit of Australia's energy resources.

The report shows primary energy consumption will increase by 1.4% each year to reach about 7715 petajoules by 2029-30 from 2007-08 levels of 5772 petajoules. Coal now accounts for almost 40% of the total, followed by oil (34% ), gas (22% ) and renewables (5%, mostly from bioenergy). The report says that by 2030, coal will provide only about 23% of the energy Australia consumes. Gas will move in as a replacement, with the government predicting its share will grow from 22% to 34%. Wind energy is expected to be the fastest growing energy source, helped by policy measures. "Australia's energy demand will continue to rise over the period to 2030, but the rate of growth is expected to continue to slow," the report says.

"This reflects the long-terns trend in the Australian economy towards less energy-intensive sectors and energy-efficiency improvements, both of which can be expected to be reinforced by policy responses to climate change." Australia is the world's ninth largest energy producer, exporting more than three-quarters of its production. While Australia's energy production in 2029-30 is projected to reach 35,057 petajoules, from 17,360 petajoules in 2007-08, coal's share of that total will decrease to about 40%.

Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson said the future looked bright for Australia's gas projects but declining oil production would test the transport sector. "The two big findings are the extraordinary potential of coal seam methane and unconventional gas resources," Mr Ferguson said. "But, with almost every sector.., dependent on oil as the major transport fuel, dependence [on oil imports] is likely to increase if we don't find more oil resources or alternatives."