China, India targets in ‘right ball-park’ for carbon budget – PwC

www.environmental-finance.com
04 December 2009

Targets from China and India to reduce their carbon intensity "are in the right ball-park" for getting the world back in line with its 'carbon budget', according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). On Monday, the professional services firm unveiled its 'Low Carbon Economy Index', which aims to assess governments' progress towards bringing global carbon emissions down to levels likely to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The firm estimates that, globally, mankind can emit a total of 1,300 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) between 2000 and 2050 "to have a fair chance of limiting global warming to 2°C". It finds that, by the end of 2008, the world had overshot this carbon budget, pro rata, by the equivalent of the combined 2008 emissions of China and the US.

However, John Hawksworth, PwC's London-based head of macroeconomics, welcomed both China's target of reducing carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020, against 2005 levels, and India's 20-25% carbon intensity pledge over the same period. China announced its target last Thursday, while India made its announcement today. "The model says that if China is at the top end of the range, it's in line with what they need to do," he told Environmental Finance. "We would have expected a lower number from India, given its lower level of carbon intensity, but it's in the right ball-park."

"It's welcome that they've come up with any kind of target," Hawksworth added. "Everyone in the 'big four' is talking concrete numbers, it's helpful," in the run-up to next week's Copenhagen climate talks, he said, referring to longstanding targets from the EU and the goal announced by President Barack Obama last week. The PwC index finds that the EU – which claims a leadership position on climate change – is 7% above the trend line that would see its carbon intensity reduced to safe levels.

PwC uses carbon intensity – rather than absolute emissions – to compare emission reduction efforts across countries with different GDP levels and as their GDP changes. However, the EU has pledged to a 20-30% absolute reduction against 1990 levels by 2020, while the US is aiming for a 17-20% reduction against 2005 emissions by the same date. The company plans to use the index to periodically assess governments' overall policies to reduce carbon emissions.