Oil's well that ends well..

The Mercury
Feb 18, 2006

US President George W. Bush may have surprised international observers by pledging, in his State of the Union address, to break his country's addiction to foreignoil but Sweden was already a step ahead of him.

The environmentally progressive Scandinavian nation has set one of its most ambitious goals yet: to totally end dependence on fossil fuels and do it within the next 15 years. "Our dependency on oil should be broken by 2020, " says Mona Sahlin, the Minister of Sustainable Development.

The utopian ideal, proposed last September by Prime Minister Goran Persson, has met with applause from environmental organisations but also great scepticism from some experts who think the target unrealistic.

Officials in Sweden acknowledge that getting rid of oil completely in so short a time is close to impossible but the aim is to ensure Swedes will never be forced to use fossil fuels because a renewable energy source is not available.

"There will always be better alternatives to oil, which means no house should need oil for heating and no driver should need to turn solely to petrol, says Sahlin. The plan is a response to global climate change, rising prices for petroleum and warnings by some experts the world may soon run out of oil.

"We want to be both mentally and technically prepared [for a world without oil]," says Martin Larsson, a senior officer in the Ministry of Sustainable Development. "A lot of people think that in five to six years a litre of petrol may cost as much as 20 kronor ($A3.40). That would be a dramatic change and a hard hit on a lot of households." Today, the price is around 11 kronor ($Al. 95) a litre.

Persson has said the target will be reached by boosting research into alternative fuels, giving financial incentives for people switching to "green alternatives" and increasing the annual electricity production from renewable sources by 15 terawatt hours by 2016.

Some tax breaks have been introduced and Persson has formed a special commission with the task of finding other ways to make society independent of oil. The commission is to present its first proposals about midyear.

As with Bush's plan, no one is doubting Sweden's good intentions.

"I don't think this is realistic," says Kenneth Werling, chief executive of Agroetanol, which runs Sweden's largest ethanol factory, "but it is a good ambition.

"Maybe we can build a society that is less dependent on oil and that is good in itself."

Sahlin, however, is confident the country can succeed. "Honestly, what is the alternative?" she says. "To wait and see when oil gets even more expensive?"

Sahlin and other experts point to several factors that give Sweden a better chance than most nations to phase out oil.

The country of nine million people has coasts stretching hundreds of kilometres, which have given rise to a number of windpower and waterpower plants. A large new wind farm is being built off the southern coast and the government intends to raise electricity production from renewable resources by 15 terawatt hours in 10 years.

As well, Sweden has more forest per capita than any other EU country, enabling it to bum tonnes of biomass which has helped to make it one of the world leaders in renewable energy.

In 2003, 26 per cent of the energy consumed there was from renewable sources more than four times as much as the European Union average of 6 per cent, according to EU statistics. Only 32 per cent of its energy came from oil, down from 77 per cent in 1970, according to Sweden's own figures.

So while the EU is striving to double its average use of renewable energy to 12 per cent by 2010, Sweden is right in setting the bar much higher, says jacqueline McGIade, executive director of the European Environment Agency in Denmark.

"Many countries are setting renewable energy targets. The difference with Sweden is that the targets are achievable, rather than aspirational, " says McGIade. "This is because government departments have built renewable energy into their longterm policies. "

It's evident in the system for heating houses and apartment buildings a key function in a land where the harsh winter usually lasts up to five months. Many counties use district heating which distributes waterbased heat, often produced by burning garbage or timber.

Today only 8 per cent of Swedish houses are heated by oil, says Stefan Edman, an environmental adviser to the government. As of January 1, those households get tax rebates if they switch to renewable sources.

A far bigger challenge will be the transport sector: only 1 per cent of Swedish run on alternative fuels. However, sales of 1 environmental cars" which run on alternative fuel have almost doubled over the past year and the parliament passed a law in December making it mandatory for all major petrol stations to offer at least one alternative fuel at their pumps.

Sweden already uses more ethanol per head than any other EU country because of a pilot project in which about 5 per cent ethanol is mixed into petrol sold at service stations to reduce pollution, says Werling, of Agroetanol.