System sheds light on renewable forecasts

Australian
Tuesday 30/11/2010 Page: 39

A hybrid forecasting system that integrates solar and wind power sources could make predictions for renewable energy schemes more accurate. Being developed at Central Queensland University, the system could overcome the unpredictable nature and dependence on weather changes of solar and wind power systems.

By integrating and forecasting the two power sources in a hybrid forecasting system, many of the problems could be resolved, according to CQU researcher Rahat Hossain. Mr Hossain has been working to develop a more robust hybrid forecasting system, which can provide accurate renewable energy predictions. "If you use these two things (wind and solar) in an integrated way, then it is a consistent and more correct prediction", he said.

Australia and, in particular, the subtropical regions are considered to be in one of the best positions to use a hybrid forecasting system, which would be unique in predicting energy from wind and solar sources combined. It is hoped the system could lead to a more sustainable future with less reliance on coal-fired energy.

Mr Hossain, a PhD student at CQU's Power Engineering Research Group within the Institute for Resource Industries and Sustainability (IRIS), is using historical solar and wind data from the CSIRO collected over the past 10 years. The initial stages had involved smaller-scale tests to predict wind speed and solar radiation individually, and these tests had almost 95% accuracy.

"The next target will be energy conversion from the wind speed and also energy conversion from the solar radiation", he said. "Then we will merge those things in a single system". The model would be developed in such a way that, with minor modifications in the coding, it would be able to perform the hybrid forecasting, ranging from hourly to daily within the same platform. A trial energy station is being planned in Central Queensland as part of the project.

Australia has committed to sourcing renewable energy for 20% of its energy by 2020. Many other nations, such as Germany and Denmark, are further advanced in renewable energy. Wind energy is one of the lowest priced renewable energy technologies.

The cost of producing energy from solar is also becoming cheaper following advances in solar panel technology. "You find when wind is blowing normally there is no sun and when there is a huge amount of sun, there is no wind", Mr Hossain said. "If you can merge these two things, what will happen is a consistent or continuous supply."