Climate change needs a plain English guide

Age
July 13, 2010 Page: 17

The science is solid but popular understanding of climate change lags.

Scientists at the University of East Anglia have emerged from the six-month "climategate" inquiry with their reputations for honesty intact. The challenge for scientists across the world now, however, is to communicate clearly the realities of climate change to a public that simply wants straight answers. The Independent Climate Change Email Review in Britain, led by Sir Muir Russell, a former top civil servant, concluded that "the rigour and honesty" of the UBA scientists "was not in doubt" and there was no evidence "that might undermine the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments".

There also was nothing found in the leaked university emails to undermine the reports of the world's leading climate change science research bodies or the IPCC. A report released earlier this week by the Netherlands Environment Agency also found the IPCC was "robust" and the handful of mistakes did not alter the conclusions that modern climate change was occurring and was caused in large part by human actions. Work will now begin on the Fifth Assessment report by the IPCC. More than 800 experts have been selected to lead work on the report, which will involve almost four years of work and is due to be published between 2013 and 2014. Eight scientists from CSIRO are among this highly qualified group.

The challenge of clearly communicating climate change to a public understandably alarmed about the associated changes to our world is as real in Australia as it is for people in other countries. Sir Muir has put the challenge for scientists into plain English: "They should learn to communicate their work in ways that the public can access and understand". Tackling the challenges of climate change will require us all to understand not just the science of climate change but also what options we have to respond to it and mitigate further change. We must not just talk about the future, because there are essential steps that have to be taken now if we wish to prepare for the changes ahead. We must be clear about what is happening now and that information must be available to everyone.

Scientists working for CSIRO and other organisations have been studying and observing the many changes to our climate for a number of years now. Recent debate about climate change has led to CSIRO receiving high demand for practical information from the public, industry and government. The message has been clear: tell us what is happening now as well as about the likely climate in the future. CSIRO joined forces with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to publish the State of the Climate snapshot earlier this year to update Australians about how our climate has changed over recent decades and what those changes mean. The snapshot can be accessed at the CSIRO website: csiro.au/resources/State-of-theClimate.

Across Australia, there has been a 65 % increase in very hot days (that is, the annual number of days with maximum temperatures greater than 40 degrees) and a 55 % decrease in very cold days (maximum temperature below 10 degrees). While Australia's rainfall is highly variable, characterised by periods of drought arid periods of wet, recent drought in the south-west of Western Australia and in south-eastern Australia has been particularly prolonged. In the south-west, autumn and winter rainfall has declined between 10 % and 20% since the 1970s, while in the south-east similar reductions have occurred since the  1970s.

Our sea levels have risen around the country since  1993 with increases of 7 - 10 mm a year in the north and west, and 1.5 - 3 mm in the south and east. This is not a forecast but part of the snapshot of recent changes in Australia. If global greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at rates consistent with past trends, warming is projected to be in the range of 2.2° to 5° by 2070. The consensus among CSIRO's climate scientists and those across the globe is that these and longer-term changes show climate change is real and happening now. In fact, climate scientists have been convinced by the evidence about this for years, but we recognise that "There has been doubt among some people in the community".

It is important for all Australians to have confidence in the understanding of climate change that has been developed at CSIRO and other agencies. The State of the Climate snapshot provided Australians with plain-English information about how climate has been changing within our lifetimes. People need to understand these recent movements, and those expected, to plan for adapting to a shifting climate and to take action to reduce the extent and impact of climate change.