Move on climate now or pay later

Canberra Times
Monday 14/9/2009 Page: 11

The National Party's motives for blocking an emissions trading scheme in the Senate fail to recognise that unmitigated climate change threatens the future viability of Australia's agricultural sector. The social and economic costs of climate change pose a far more severe and long-lasting threat to Australian agriculture than any immediate financial hardship caused by an ETS. The Nationals need to recognise that climate change is more than a rise in global temperature and sea levels.

The increases, frequency, and severity of droughts accompanying climate change will cripple agricultural communities. Under a no-mitigation scenario, the Garnaut report projects the Murray-Darling Basin's agricultural productivity to be halved by 2050 and all but wiped out by 2100 - the Murray-Darling is responsible for about a third of Australia's agricultural production. Effective climate change mitigation is needed now because the next 20 to 30 years of climate change trends have already been programmed and cannot be reversed.

The Nationals' vocal opposition to the ETS is intended to shield agriculture economies in the short term. Unfortunately it's also jeopardising the long-term viability of Australian agriculture. If these climatic trends continue as expected, the environmental pressure on crops and livestock would make working the land increasingly difficult. Australia's massive beef industry, which stands to suffer much from unmitigated climate change, is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.

Queensland holds about 45% of Australia's cattle herd, about 12 million head. In 2008, the methane produced from cattle in Queensland accounted for 14% of the state's total greenhouse gas emissions. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions should be at the front of mind for every industry wanting to stay viable in future, agriculture is no exception. CSIRO's climate change projections under moderate climate change conditions, most regions ofAustralia will be 1 to 2 degrees Celsius hotter by 2030.

The heat and moisture stress on crops and livestock will significantly increase, making it harder for farmers to remain viable in ever more challenging conditions. Brisbane has recently experienced record August temperatures of more than 35 degrees. By 2070, mean summer temperatures are likely to be 3-5 degrees hotter. This is beyond the capacity of agriculture to adapt and maintain economic viability. Most of inland regions will be beyond the level of human comfort.

Being a sector with the most to lose from climate change, the National Party and agricultural industry should be leading the charge in Australia's mitigation strategies, tackling the big polluters and the coal industry. A strong ETS may hurt now but it's in agriculture's long-term interests to strongly mitigate climate change now. Revegetation should be the first step. Our research has shown that historical land clearing has made the climate hotter and drier.

Restoring native vegetation on farms will allow farmers to offset on-farm CO2 emissions from land, livestock and machinery, as well as restoring valuable land micro-climate-atmosphere vegetation feedbacks which can help mitigate regional climate change. This should be done strategically to help retain water on farms and restore biodiversity, while providing a favourable micro-climate for crops and livestock. Then comes the challenge of an ETS. The bar needs to be set higher than the 5% emissions decrease by 2020 the Rudd Government is proposing.

Speaking to the ABC, Senator Bob Brown compared Australia's pledge to a 5% emissions to Britain's aim of 34%. For this reason, by blocking the ETS, the Nationals have made the right decision for the wrong reasons. To pass the Rudd Government's ETS in its current form would be allowing the Government to severely under-commit to climate change mitigation and emissions reduction.

The Nationals and the agricultural sector should be leading the charge on stronger actions to mitigate climate change. Farmers and graziers in inland regions will feel the effects of climate change long before those who live on the coast evidence says they already are. How many droughts will it take for the Nationals to realise that unless they begin getting serious about climate change mitigation, they'll quickly be running out of people to represent?

Dr Clive McAlpine and Tristan Tobin are at the School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland.