Canberra Times
Monday 1/6/2009 Page: 7
Gruelling efforts to craft a pact on climate change enter a crucial phase today when the 192-nation UN forum takes its first look at a draft text for negotiations. The 12-day meeting in the German city of Bonn under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change means that, after 18 months of swapping visions, the process will at last get down to the gritty stuff.
Little more than six months are left before the Bali road map, launched in Indonesia in 2006, reaches its supposed destination at a Copenhagen summit: an accord that will transform global warming from a monster into a manageable problem. On the table is a small mountain of paper whose notable feature is curly brackets, denoting discord among scores of submissions.
Despite the sprawling range of proposals, convention executive secretary Yvo de Boer said he hoped the draft would be endorsed as a workable basis for talks over the coming months. "There will be a negotiating text on the table for the first time," he said. "I hope it will be well received, that it will be seen as a balanced representation of the different ideas that countries have come with."
The big goal is to slash emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. But that's where consensus largely ends. Exactly how deep should be the cut be? How can it be achieved? And who should shoulder the burden? In their proposals, many developing countries say rich countries, which bear historical responsibility for today's warming, should take the lead by cutting their emissions by 25-40% by 2020.
China has led the charge, demanding a cut of at least 40%. But only the European Union, which has set its own reduction of 20% by 2020 - deepened to 30% if other advanced economies play ball - is anywhere near such a figure. After eight long years of vilification, the United States is now being warmly embraced in the climate arena as President Barack Obama bulldozes predecessor George W. Bush's policies.
But the United States is warning that the world cannot expect miracles. A Bill put before Congress would cut US emissions by 17% by 2020 over 2005 levels using a cap-and- trade system. This approach would translate to a reduction of only 4% compared with the 1990 benchmark, but it would also ratchet up to 83% by 2050, top US climate change negotiator Todd Stern said in Paris last week. "We are jumping as high as the political system will tolerate," Mr Stern said.
Just as unresolved is what emerging giant economies should do. China is now the world's biggest polluter, and Brazil and India have leapt tip the emission ranks as their economies have grown. Yet all refuse binding targets. Then there is how to muster finance to help poor countries adapt to the effects of climate change, and how to transfer clean technology so that they avoid becoming the greenhouse gas villains of the future.
These are just a few of the many obstacles besetting the Bali road map. The complexity is such that many experts now predict Copenhagen will not be a complete treaty but, at best, a good deal on the main points. US Climate Action Network's Angela Anderson said, "I think that what we are looking at in Copenhagen is a deal that will lock in some specific emission reductions goals, will create commitments both for investment and adaptation and then.., the details will have to be filled in later."
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