Eminent scientists on attack over Rudd emissions plan

Sydney Morning Herald
Wednesday 15/4/2009 Page: 1

THREE of CSIRO's most eminent climate scientists have told a Senate inquiry that the Prime Minister's targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions will not achieve even a "limited" level of protection against climate change and are "much weaker" than the cuts developed countries need to make. In a big embarrassment for Kevin Rudd and the Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong, the globally recognised scientists have made a joint submission to a new inquiry on the Government's carbon trading scheme, which begins hearings today in Canberra.

The scientists are John Church, an expert on sea level rise, Pep Canadell, who runs the global carbon project and has published on greenhouse gas releases, and Michael Raupach, the co-chairman of the same project who writes on greenhouse gas levels. They stress their submission is personal and not endorsed by CSIRO. But they say the Government's plan to cut emissions by between 5 and 15% below 2000 levels by 2020 and 60% by 2050 is "much weaker than required of developed nations".

"The Australian targets will not achieve climate protection. Even if every nation on Earth adopts and succeeds in meeting Australian targets, global emissions would still be above a pathway consistent with long-term climate protection", they say.

They say the benchmark for avoiding a big risk of climate change is keeping the global temperature from rising more than 2 degrees. Even the most ambitious aim of the United Nations climate talks has only a limited chance of avoiding dangerous climate change, they say. That aim is to keep global greenhouse gas concentrations from rising above 450 parts per million. This gives only a 50% chance of protection.

Their submission says Australia needs to set higher targets. "Without such targets, Australia is at high risk of permanent, major damage from climate change," they say. The new Senate inquiry chaired by the Greens and the Coalition will examine the Government's carbon scheme, which is under attack from environmentalists and business.

The Greens senator, Christine Milne, who is co-chairing the hearings, says the submission and other scientific evidence will a big problem for the Government. The committee will also highlight the gulf between some Coalition and Greens members with several leading climate change sceptics also giving evidence.