Coal-fired generators escape the blacklist

Sydney Morning Herald
Friday 19/12/2008 Page: 3

FEW if any of Australia's 30 coalfired power generators will be shut down by 2020 under the Rudd Government's scheme to reduce greenhouse gases by a target of 5 per cent, according to the findings of its own white paper made public this week.

About $3.9 billion will be handed out to the most polluting generators in the form of free permits to emit greenhouse gases under the scheme announced by the Prince Minister, Kevin Rudd, on Monday. But modelling in the Government's white paper on the carbon pollution reduction scheme shows there will be no significant reductions in carbon pollution from coal-fired power stations by 2020 if the Government sticks to a target of cutting emissions to 5 per cent below 2000 levels.

Using three different models, the white paper finds that under the Rudd plan "emissions do not reduce significantly below the current levels over the first decade of the scheme". The main benefit of the scheme, it says, is to stop the growth of greenhouse emissions from power generators in the future, rather than cutting emissions or shutting down any of the generators.

The modelling finds that "relatively few generators exit the market in their entirety" and one model suggests that none will shut before 2020 as a result of the Government's scheme if the target is 5 per cent. At most only three are likely to go. Releasing the white paper this week, Mr Rudd said if there was a successful international climate agreement next year, Australia would lift its target to a maximum 15 per cent reduction in emissions on 2000 levels. Under this target, about seven generators could shut down.

Hugh Saddler, an emissions expert, said it was difficult to find cuts to Australia's greenhouse gas emissions in the carbon pollution reduction scheme, especially from the energy sector, which accounts for almost 70 per cent of emissions, the bulk of these coming from electricity, followed by transport.

At UN negotiations, European and Chinese leaders have called on developed countries to consider cuts of 25 per cent by 2020, and Mr Rudd is facing a backlash from environment groups. Australians per head of population are among the highest greenhouse gas polluters in the world, Mr Rudd said this week. Each Australian produces about 27.6 tonnes a year.

'The Garnaut report found that Australia's electricity supply had a greenhouse gas emissions load much higher than the average for developed OECD countries, and that among nations producing "clean" electricity we were just ahead of Cuba, Cambodia and Kazakhstan. Our reliance on black and brown coal for three quarters of the electricity supply made us one of the most greenhouse gas-intensive countries in the world, with only North Korea, Estonia, Mongolia, Bosnia and Poland in the same league.

As few emissions cuts are now expected to come from coalfired power stations, the Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong, is promoting the Government's target of getting 20 per cent of the country's power from renewable energy by 2020 as a means of cutting emissions. Draft legislation on that target was made public on Tuesday.

Senator Wong did not dispute that under the Government's plan, few cuts would come from coal-fired power stations. "The carbon pollution reduction scheme is designed to reduce Australia's carbon pollution at the lowest cost to the economy," a spokeswoman said. "The Government places a very high priority on the security of Australia's electricity supply."