Climate ripe for change

Herald Sun
Wednesday 1/10/2008 Page: 19

THE Garnaut Climate Change Review is now complete. Its brief was to "examine the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, and recommend medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity". To me, the concept of sustainable prosperity is the key to turning climate change mitigation into a win-win scenario. I'll explain why, but first, some background.

Ross Garnaut, the economics professor from the Australian National University who had oversight of the review, was criticised by many climate scientists for proposing weak carbon emissions reduction targets. After all, the mainstream science says we are close to, or have already overshot, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide that causes dangerous climate change. Yet Garnaut's initial proposal would have us increasing carbon dioxide by another 44 per cent. This is a compromise goal, but one he considers feasible.

After all, the difficulty in reaching international agreements on how each nation might wind back their carbon output is immense. This mismatch between the policy and the science poses a significant problem. With it, we cannot hope to avoid most of the really serious economic and environmental impacts of global warming. Garnaut calls it the "diabolical problem".

But what if we are looking at the problem from the wrong way around? What if the diabolical problem is really just the ultimate gold-plated opportunity for the next economic revolution? A reliable and continually growing supply of cheap, easily generated energy was the driving force behind the industrial revolution and modern communications age.

This, in turn, has brought us high standards of living, amazing technological breakthroughs and sustained economic growth. The catch is that this cheap, reliable energy has come from fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Huge stores of carbon, buried safely for millions of years, are now being released back into the air by us at an astounding rate. Hit the climate system with a shock like this, and it hits back. Hard. Experts also admit to another, little discussed problem.

Our energy infrastructure needs an overhaul to replace ageing equipment and increase its capacity to supply more energy to an expanding economy. Then there is the peaking of fossil fuel supplies. We are close to the point where we've reached maximum global oil production. And demand from China for oil is growing fast. Prices are rising as a result, and they're not ever heading back to the inexpensive days of the 1980s and 1990s. It's not only oil. It's also coal.

Traditional sources of energy, based on fossil fuels, are becoming scarcer and more expensive. Their extensive use also causes dangerous climate change. Put this way, the decision to invest heavily - and rapidly - in renewable energies such as geothermal (hot rocks), solar thermal (desert mirrors), wave and wind energy, and rooftop photovoltaic systems, is a no-brainer. These technologies offer the only way to achieve an ongoing, growing energy supply.

What's more, unlike carbon-based energy, they are getting cheaper, not more expensive. The Garnaut Review recognises these core issues, but its focus remains too heavily directed towards emissions reductions targets. I'd argue that if we concentrate most of our effort on helping the market get the renewable energy solution right, then carbon emission will fall rapidly as result. It's an emergent property of fixing the energy supply. It doesn't need to be an explicit aim. Oh, and we get a prosperous, sustainable economy to boot. Win-win.

Barry Brook is Sir Hubert Wilkins Professor of Climate Change at the University of Adelaide