Financial gain, not just pain

Australian
Tuesday 8/7/2008 Page: 4

AUSTRALIA stands to make huge financial gains if it seizes the initiative ahead of global rivals by moving quickly to a low emissions economy. The claim came yesterday from leading American climate scientist Ben Santer, who is famous for linking human activity with global warming, and worked as a lead author of the groundbreaking 1995 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In a public lecture in Adelaide, Dr Santer reacted to the release of Ross Garnaut's draft report on an emissions trading scheme by saying it was in Australia's financial interests to swiftly develop the technology and policies demanded by a low-emissions economy. "There are tremendous economic benefits to be won for those first countries to grapple with climate change," he said at the University of Adelaide. He suggested that those countries that made the running in regard to the development of climate-friendly technologies would stand to make a significant financial benefit by exporting it to the rest of world.

Low-carbon and zero-emission energy sources were among the most pressing priorities, he said, rejecting the "false dichotomy" of "the environment or jobs." Dr Santer is an expert in global climate modelling and specialises in gleaning the effects of human activity on the earth's climate. He said the "best modelling" predicted a global temperature increase of between 1.5C and 3C this century.

Dr Santer is no stranger to controversy. He was criticised by energy industry interests for changing the wording of the final IPCC report in 1995, allegedly to comply with the IPCC's political agenda. Dr Santer and others rejected the criticism, asserting that he did not alter the overall findings of the report, which expressed some doubt about the role of human activity in climate change.

Dr Santer said yesterday that the debate over human-induced global warming had largely been settled in mainstream science, industry and political circles. He even admitted he had some reason for optimism, after 15 years of struggling to communicate the implications of climate change to the wider community. "We have spent decades trying to convince people that there is a problem," he said. "I think the message has gotten through, even in the US." Dr Santer and the IPCC are preparing the fifth IPCC report, due out in 2015.

He said a huge part of the new report would be devoted to improved climate modelling, so that policy-makers struggling in Australia with a planned emissions trading scheme might act with more confidence. Dr Santer admitted that modelling of the climate's future would never be 100 per cent accurate, but said this was no reason not to act. "If we wait until we understand every aspect of climate change, then we will be waiting for something that never happens," he said. "Meanwhile, the human imprint on climate will increase."