Weekend Australian
Saturday 7/6/2008 Page: 17
Governments and industry need to invest at least US $45 trillion -- or at least 1.1% of world GDP annually, to half greenhouse gases by 2050, the International Energy Agency has warned.
That calls for a massive increase in nuclear energy output -- about 32 new nuclear plants a year for the next 40 years, compared with the 393 currently in commission -- and another form of non-carbon emitting power generation-- and average 60 new coal and gas-fired electricity plants around the world would need to be retrofitted each year with carbon dioxide capture and storage technology, at a cost of US 90 billion annually.
Massive investment would be needed to develop CO2 reduction technology, up to US 100 million annually for the next 15 years, IEA asserts in its energy technology perspective 2008 report. But the alternative under a continuation of current energy use, is 130% increase in emissions over that time and a 70% net increase in global demand for oil.
One benefit of achieving the target would be a significant lessening of oil dependence -- total world oil demand in 2050 would be 27% below 2005 levels, according to the study. Under current policies and practices, IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka warned,"we are very far from sustainable development, despite the widespread recognition of the long-term problem. In fact, CO2 emissions growth has accelerated considerably in recent years." "We will require immediate policy action and the technological transition on an unprecedented scale." Mr Tanaka said yesterday in Tokyo.
At a summit in Hokkaido next month, G8 leaders are expected to adopt Japan's proposal to halve the current level of world CO2 emissions by 2050. The target was recently endorsed by G8 environmental ministers. The IEA membership includes all the G8 states - except Russia. In the US, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Canada and Italy -- plus most other significant developed economies, including Australia. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will attend the Hokkaido Summit at Japan's invitation as one of the G8 "outreach partners" to discuss emissions control and energy and food security.
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda hopes to produce the framework for a global warming agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol on emissions control, expiring in 2012. But IEA membership does not include the big developing economies such as China -- which has just surpassed the US as the world's biggest greenhouse emitter -- India and Brazil.
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