Nation faces a barren future

Age
October 2, 200

Australians are facing a barren future, with rainfall to fall by as much as 10 per cent in the next 60 years and more frequent drought conditions predicted under climate change. Melbourne faces temperature rises of up to 3.8 degrees by 2070 and the number of days over 35 degrees may rise from 9 to 25 days if global greenhouse emissions are not slashed.

The most detailed and up-to-date predictions on how climate change will affect Australia, released today by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, provide a grim outlook for the nation's water supplies, which are already under severe stress. And the news is dire for farmers, with up to 40 per cent more drought days predicted in eastern Australia by 2070. The predictions point to decreased rainfall across Australia, CSIRO's climate change impact and risk group leader Penny Whetton said. "It is a slightly stronger message about drying than our last report in 2001 showed," Dr Whetton said.

About 50 leading Australian scientists are gathered in Sydney for Greenhouse 2007, to hear the forecasts, which localise models from this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Improvements in computer modelling of climate mean the new projections are more accurate than the 2001 figures. And the projections are bad news for vulnerable areas of Australia highlighted earlier this year by the intergovernmental panel. At-risk natural environments include the Great Barrier Reef, which may become extinct if temperatures rise by three degrees. Kakadu National Park's wetlands and southern Australia's ski fields were also identified by the IPCC as under threat. Coastal towns and cities also face the growing threat of sea level rises and areas such as East Gippsland in Victoria will be at risk of storm surges.

The new report, Climate Change in Australia, highlights the impact human activity will have, depending on how quickly greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. If low-emissions scenarios are followed, with carbon dioxide levels stabilised in the atmosphere, the temperature in Australia may rise about 1.8 degrees by 2070, and rainfall may decrease by about 7.5 per cent. But worst-case scenarios predict 5-degree warming and a 30 per cent reduction in annual rainfall by 2070. The Bureau's Scott Power said the report must be used to plan ahead. "We need to minimise risks and make the most of opportunities," Dr Power said. "This information is critical to that process."

Link: http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au