Carbon fibre taking off

Australian
Tuesday 17/7/2007 Page: 22

ULTRA-LIGHT, rust-proof, 10 times stronger than steel and hailed by some as the key to energy efficiency, carbon fibre may soon be traded as a commodity on global markets, according to some industry expectations. The view arises as carbon fibre is poised for potentially huge growth in the airline and motor industries. Demand for it is also soaring from manufacturers of everything from golf clubs and fishing rods to wind farms and bullet-proof vests.

Competition for high-quality carbon fibre is intensifying faster than its mostly Japanese producers predicted and an international market with liquidity and transparency could bring the supply and demand balance under better control, the industry argues. High-end carbon fibre is sold by producers direct to end users, but both sides believe the creation of a carbon-fibre spot market is crucial. Rising demand has pushed highend carbon fibre prices up more than 65 per cent since 2004. Japan dominates the industry, its top three textile companies producing 70 per cent of the world's carbon fibre.

Investors have been eyeing the rising carbon-fibre demand curve for some years, but when 787 Dreamliner was introduced last week it marked the beginning of a new era. Half the aircraft's weight is represented by carbon-fibre composites and the same ratio will be true of Airbus's A380. The aircraft industry represents a fifth of the world's carbon-fibre demand of 28,000 tonnes a year and analysts estimate aircraft-related demand could expand 500 times in coming years.

But Toru Nagashima, president of Teijin, one of the world's biggest producers of carbon fibre, said other uses were being developed. As those demands pile up, the complexity and capital intensity of making high-quality carbon fibre would be exposed, he said. Carbon fibre's growth relies heavily on prices being manageable at present, so the technology is adopted. An international commodity trading system for carbon fibre might emerge as a result.

As well as its use in civil engineering, for strengthening bridges, carbon fibre is used in making windmill (windfarm) sails. UBS analyst Takaaki Muramatsu predicts a doubling in carbon-fibre demand by the windmill industry between now and 2010. Yet the greatest effect on carbon fibre use is expected in 2011, when the motor industry, for reasons of fuel efficiency and safety, moves from aluminium to carbon composites for car bodies and parts, Mr Nagashima said. Toyota and Honda are among car makers interested in greater use of carbon fibre.