China now world's top carbon polluter

Age
Thursday 21/6/2007 Page: 5

CHINA has overtaken the US as the world's biggest producer of carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas, figures show. The surprising announcement will increase anxiety about China's growing role in driving man-made global warming, and put pressure on politicians to agree to a global agreement on climate change that includes the booming Chinese economy.

China's emissions had not been expected to overtake those from the US, formerly the world's biggest polluter, for several years. But according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, soaring demand for coal to generate electricity and a surge in cement production had helped push China's recorded emissions for last year beyond those from the US. Jos Olivier, a senior scientist at the agency, who compiled the figures, said: "There will still be some uncertainty about the exact numbers, but this is the best and most up to date estimate available.

China relies very heavily on coal, and all of the recent trends show their emissions going up very quickly." China's emissions were 2 per cent below those of the US in 2005. Per head of population, China's pollution remains relatively low - about a quarter of that in the US and half that of Britain. The figures only include carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and production of cement. They do not include sources of other greenhouse gases, such as methane from agriculture and nitrous oxide from industrial processes. And they exclude other sources of carbon dioxide, such as from the aviation and shipping industries, as well as from deforestation, gas flaring and underground coal fires.

Dr Olivier said it was hard to find reliable estimates for such emissions, particularly from countries in the developing world. But he said including them would be unlikely to topple China from top spot. To work out the emissions figures, Dr Olivier used data issued by BP this month on the consumption of oil, gas and coal across the world last year, as well as information on cement production published by the US Geological Survey.

Cement production, which requires huge amounts of energy, accounts for about 4 per cent of global carbon dioxide production from fuel use and industrial sources. China's cement industry, which has rapidly expanded in recent years and now produces about 44 per cent of world supply, contributes almost 9 per cent of the country's carbon dioxide emissions.

The announcement comes as international talks to produce a new climate treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012 are delicately poised. The US refused to ratify Kyoto partly because it made no demands on China, and one major sticking point of the new negotiations has been finding a way to include both nations, as well as other rapidly developing economies such as India and Brazil.

Earlier this month, China unveiled its first national plan on climate change after two years of preparation by 17 government ministries. Rather than setting a direct target for the reduction or avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions, it now aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product by 20 per cent by 2010 and to increase the share of renewable energy to some 10 per cent, as well as to cover about 20 per cent of the nation with forests.

But it stressed that technology and costs were major barriers to achieving energy efficiency in China, and that it would be hard to alter the nation's dependency on coal in the short terns. A Government spokesman said China needed international co-operation in helping it move towards a low-carbon economy. Chinese industries have been hesitant to embrace unproven clean-coal and carbon-capture technologies that are still in their infancy.