Extreme heat and cold could spark blackouts

Age
Friday 13/4/2007 Page: 7

VICTORIA faces the prospect of power shortfalls next summer if winter proves unusually dry and cold and the coming summer unusually hot. Industry insiders warn that booming demand and a lack of hydro power has left the state vulnerable to power station shutdowns and heat waves.

The National Electricity Market Management Company, which controls the power grid, predicts there would not be enough energy to cope with a one-in-10-year heatwave combined with a major plant failure next summer. The Age understands that NEMMCO raised the issue in a private briefing to electricity generators this month.

Projections posted on the company's website show Victoria will be short of reserve capacity - needed to prevent blackouts during an extreme summer demand surge - by up to 230 megawatts in February and March 2008. NEMMCO chief executive Les Hosking said the prediction was a "first step in a lengthy planning cycle", with a number of options to generate more power before the summer.

But Melbourne-based electricity expert Michael Zammit, whose company runs multimillion dollar demand management programs for the NSW Government, warned that a cold, dry winter leading into a hot, dry summer could have a "devastating" impact on Victoria, NSW and Queensland.

"There would be absolutely no doubt in my mind that there would be rolling blackouts," Mr Zammit said. "We just haven't had enough generation capacity built to keep up with demand." Industry Minister Peter Batchelor said there had been huge investment to increase the state's power supply. "The Government is confident that electricity demand can be met this summer," Mr Batchelor said.

He said that since Labor came to office, Victoria's power capacity had increased by 2000 megawatts, with the upgrade and completion of several power stations, wind farms and the Basslink cable connecting Tasmania with the mainland.

Far from supplying Victoria with cheap hydro power as promised, drought-stricken Tasmania is now using the Basslink cable to import coalfired electricity from the mainland to avoid power rationing over winter. That means one of Victoria's key power transmission safety valves is effectively not operating.

Concern about the power supply follows revelations in The Age yesterday that hefty increases to household power bills are near certain, with wholesale prices up by more than 70 per cent during the past 12 months.