Kyoto in crisis

New Scientist, Page: 3
Saturday, 8 July 2006

FOR over a decade, Germany has been the poster-child of environmentalists demanding action to curb global warming. It has closed coal mines, pioneered wind power and dramatically improved energy efficiency. In the process, it has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by more than 17 per cent from 1990 levels, the baseline year for emission targets set by the Kyoto Protocol. So there was horror this week when Angela Merkel's government called a halt to further cuts.

The country's environment ministry announced that it wanted to issue almost as many carbon dioxide emissions permits for industry for the 2008 to 2012 period, the first compliance period of the Kyoto Protocol, as it did for 2005 to 2007. This raises serious questions about whether Germany can meet its Kyoto promise of a 21 per cent cut in all greenhouse gas emissions. Is the Kyoto Protocol falling apart? Was the US right when it predicted that, when push came to shove, Europeans would ditch their green promises in favour of economic pragmatism?In truth, Germany was never that green. It has yet to do anything to curb climate change that is painful.

Its power stations switched from coal to natural gas to save money, not to cut emissions. And the biggest drop in emissions was in eastern Germany, where heavy industry collapsed after reunification. Now Merkel is under pressure from power companies, which refuse to invest in new generation capacity unless they are exempt from tough emissions caps. Meanwhile, the strong green lobby appears able and willing to veto new nuclear power plants.

The government is taking the easy way out. Germany can still meet its Kyoto target. Heavy industry is responsible for only around half of German emissions, and the government promises bigger cuts elsewhere, notably from vehicle emissions. This is optimistic.

A more likely scenario is that it will end up buying so-called "hot air" - spare Kyoto emissions permits from Russia and Ukraine. That would be a cop-out. It would keep the Kyoto show on the road, but it would severely undermine its credibility. It would also reduce the pressure on countries like the US and Australia to join Kyoto, at a time when the political pendulum on the issue appears to be swinging in the US.

The world will one day act with urgency to curb greenhouse gases: the likely violence of the atmosphere's reaction to our emissions makes that inevitable. Climate change awaits its 9/11.In the meantime, this is a critical moment for the Kyoto Protocol, the first serious effort to head off that crisis. Merkel should rethink; the European Commission and European governments should put pressure on her to do so.